This study evaluates the potential impact of a U.S.-Saudi security agreement on Riyadh’s policy toward the Axis of Resistance. Evidence indicates that although Operation Al-Aqsa Flood has delayed Saudi-Israeli normalization, its eventual realization remains inevitable under conducive conditions. Publicly available information identifies this security pact as a core Saudi precondition for normalization. Key provisions include unprecedented U.S. defense guarantees to Saudi Arabia, American access to Saudi territory, extensive bilateral military cooperation, and civilian nuclear collaboration between Riyadh and Washington. Should the United States accept these terms, Saudi foreign policy toward the Axis of Resistance would undergo profound transformation. Accordingly, analyzing the agreement’s ramifications for Riyadh’s West Asia strategy—while prioritizing Iran’s national interests—is critically important. Data were drawn from documentary sources and analyzed using a qualitative explanatory-analytic method. Findings reveal that U.S. security guarantees would significantly enhance Riyadh’s regional bargaining power against the Axis of Resistance and its core member, Iran. Moreover, de facto Article 5-like protection would shield Saudi Arabia from threats posed by Tehran or other Axis actors. Consequently, if implemented, the agreement could impose a historic security dilemma on the Axis of Resistance, managed jointly by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States within a broad threat-balancing framework.